Victory Road Macro

What the desk favors before the open, and the level that would prove it wrong.

A daily macro brief from the desk behind a systematic fund. One regime call, with the sectors behind it and the level that ends it. Graded at that day’s close; every grade is printed in the next issue.

Start a 14-day trial Read a members’ issue ↓

The free edition carries the call, the grade and the day’s data. No card.

Before the US open, every market day. The trial is the full members’ brief from the first morning.
8·2·10*
Hit · Partial · Miss, last 20 graded sessions
42·26·33*
Hit · Partial · Miss, every issue since Apr 8, 2026
1
Break level in every issue, named before the open, checked at the close
*Two legs, scored at the close: the pair we favored against the pair we avoided, and the top favored sector against the S&P. A win with no loss is a Hit, a loss with no win a Miss, anything else Partial. The full rule is on the method page; each grade is printed in that morning's issue.
Portfolio managers Macro & strategy desks Traders Individuals who run their own money
What members read

The call, the reasoning, and the break level.

Every issue opens with the conclusion and works back to the evidence. It is written the way the morning meeting runs: what changed since yesterday, and the break level that would change our mind. The written read is about 250 words, one level and two sides; the rest is the data, assembled.

The regime call and its horizon Free
Three Flash cards — the regime, the day’s binding data, the cross-asset signal. Each call says whether it is for the session or the week, so it can be graded.
Yesterday’s grade, with the numbers Free
The prior call scored by a fixed rule against the close: the regime read on the S&P and the VIX, the rotation call on the spread between the sectors we favored and avoided. The grade is printed with its numbers.
The Macro Analyst Take Members
What moved and why, and what would make us wrong. About 150 of the 250 words.
The break condition Members
One instrument, one level, counted in closes. When it triggers we print BROKEN and change sides the same morning. The level does not follow price.
The sectors we favor Members
Which sectors we favor, which we lean against, and the pair. Held until it breaks, graded daily.
Rates, credit, positioning and the calendar Members
The curve and real yields, the priced Fed path, auctions, credit spreads, the VIX term structure, options and futures positioning, and what a surprise in today’s releases does to each.
A members’ issue, in full

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

This is the brief members read that morning, as it was sent. Nothing rewritten for the page. The grade printed the next morning: Rotation call: Hit · the pair we favored +3.3pp · regime read Confirmed · break level intact.

Victory Road Macro · Tue, Sep 15, 2026 · members’ edition
Oil Relief Arrives, Hike Odds Rise Anyway
Distribution regime · week callGraded next morning: Hit
Session regime
Day two of distribution, and it narrowed: 2 of 11 sectors constructive, down from 3 since our last brief.
Key data
Empire State 8:30 ET, 14.8 estimate against 20.6 prior — a miss softens tomorrow's hike case, a beat hardens it.
Cross-asset signal
Crude is 4.7% cheaper, yet US diesel hit a record $6.27 — the relief has not reached the pump.
Macro Analyst Take

Unconfirmed de-escalation headlines out of Russia, Ukraine and Iran took Brent back 4.7% overnight, and the tape traded them anyway. The move did not dent tomorrow's decision: the strip still prices the hike at better than four in five. Cheaper crude is no longer the Fed's problem, because the July minutes put the argument somewhere else: several members said the data-center build-out is pushing up aggregate demand and prices. That makes AI capital spending itself a hawkish input, and it makes yesterday's frontier-lab slowdown warnings genuinely disinflationary over any horizon that matters. The equity market takes the de-rating first and the rate relief last. So we still favor XLE and XLV against XLK, XLI and XLU, and we keep the Brent test exactly where we set it. The callout level sits 1.1% under spot now — live for the first time, and the cleanest read available on whether the supply story or the financing story owns this tape.

Plain English
Who funds the artificial-intelligence build-out is now the question, and a real slowdown there would cool inflation while marking down expensive technology first.
What Breaks This Thesis
Two consecutive Brent closes below $101.20 end distribution and rotate the sectors we favor back toward XLK and XLY out of XLE and XLV. That is 1.1% under this morning's $102.28 — the first time the test has been in reach since we set it on Sep 14, and it will not follow price.
The sectors we favor
SectorRationale1D5D20D
Favor
XLEBest 20-day trend at +4.2%; bid pre-market even with Brent down 3.2%.-0.94%+0.73%+4.23%
XLVOne of three sectors positive over twenty days; out of a bearish phase yesterday.+1.45%-2.16%+0.23%
Avoid
XLKSlipped from accumulation to bearish and now sits under its 185.24 twenty-day average.-1.81%-1.60%-3.02%
XLIWorst 20-day trend at -8.9%, below both averages, and no bid on any tape.-1.42%-3.05%-8.89%
XLUBond proxy falling while rate volatility climbs 15% in five sessions.-1.34%-2.92%-5.62%
Pair Trade
Long XLE / Short XLK
Favored since Sep 14 and up 0.87 points; barrels still lead a sector that lost its average.
Bottom Line
Cheaper crude bought the tape nothing, and that is the finding: this is a financing story now, not an oil story. Watch Brent into the close — the callout needs two of them.
What a brief at this price has to do

Make a call with a level on it, then print the score.

A note with no level on it cannot be wrong. Ours has one, and gets checked.

One call, one level
Each issue makes one regime call, with the sectors behind it and the level that ends it. When the level triggers, the next issue says BROKEN in the first line and changes sides.
Graded by a fixed rule at the close
The regime read is scored on the S&P and the VIX at the close. The rotation call is scored on the spread between the sectors we favored and avoided. The record sits in every issue, and the rule is on the method page.
Made that morning, and short when nothing moved
The brief is the desk’s own read. It says what changed since yesterday and stops. On a quiet day it is short, and a card can say that nothing on the calendar binds today.
The desk

Victory Road Capital Management

Victory Road Capital Management is a systematic manager. The brief is the macro read behind those models, produced every morning and published with a level so it can be checked. It carries the desk’s views, never the fund’s positions. What is graded here is the published call. How each call is made and graded is on the method page.

Membership

The full brief, from the first morning.

Both plans start with 14 days of the members’ brief. Nothing is charged until the trial ends, you can cancel from your account, and we refund the first paid month if you ask.

Annual
Members
$1,490/yr
$124 a month, billed once. Two months free against monthly.
14-day trial, then annual
  • The full brief every market morning
  • The Macro Analyst Take and the break level
  • The sectors we favor and the pair we favor
  • Rates, credit, positioning and the calendar
  • The graded record, every issue
Start the trial
Members
$149/mo
Month to month, same brief and trial.
14-day trial, then monthly
  • The full brief every market morning
  • The Macro Analyst Take and the break level
  • The sectors we favor and the pair we favor
  • Rates, credit, positioning and the calendar
  • The graded record, every issue
Start the trial
The free edition, plus one full members’ issue a month. No card.
Get the free edition
Teams of three to ten: $99 per seat per month, billed annually, one invoice. Email accounts@victory-road.ai with the seat count and we will set it up.
Questions
What do I get in the trial?
The members’ brief, in full, for 14 days: the Analyst Take, the break level, the sectors we favor, and the rates, credit and positioning sections. A card goes on file and nothing is charged until day 15. Cancel from your account before then and you pay nothing.
When does it arrive?
Before the US open on every market day, usually between 6:45 and 7:45 ET. The call is made on the overnight tape and the pre-market, and it is graded against that day’s close.
What is free?
The regime call, yesterday’s grade, the market snapshot, today’s releases and central-bank dates, the bottom line and one plain-English read, every morning. On the first trading Monday of each month free readers get the full members’ issue. The reasoning, the level and the sectors are for members.
Does the brief tell me what the fund holds?
No. It publishes the desk’s views — the regime, the sectors we favor and the level. It never describes fund positions, and the record here is the record of the published calls, not fund performance.
Who is it written for?
The same edition goes to portfolio managers, macro desks, traders and people running their own money.
Can I cancel, and is there a refund?
Cancel from your account at any time. If the first paid month was not worth it, email accounts@victory-road.ai and we refund it. Annual members can switch to free at renewal.
What am I paying for that I cannot get free?
About 250 words each morning: what moved, what we favor, the level, the two sides. The rest of the issue is public data assembled and stamped with its date so you can see how fresh each piece is. The free edition shows the call and the grade; members get the reasoning and the sides.
How is a call graded?
By a fixed rule against the close, not by us. The regime read is scored on the S&P and the VIX; the rotation call on the spread between the sectors we favored and avoided. The thresholds, the horizon rule and what happens when a level triggers are on the method page.
Can I expense it?
Yes — the receipt works as an invoice. For a custom billing reference, a W-9 or anything else for AP, email accounts@victory-road.ai.
Is this investment advice?
No. Victory Road Macro is macro research for informational purposes only and is not investment advice tailored to any individual.
Victory Road Macro
Victory Road Macro is published by Victory Road Corporation. Content is macro research for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice tailored to any individual. The published track record reflects the brief’s research calls only and is not the performance of any fund managed by Victory Road Capital Management. Manage subscription.