How each call is made, and how it is graded.

A regime, a horizon, two sides and one level.

Every issue names a regime for the tape (recovery, bullish, accumulation, warning, distribution or bearish), the sectors it favors and leans against, a pair (one favored sector against one avoided), and a break condition. The call carries a horizon, session or week, which decides how it is graded. A week call is held: the sides and the level do not change day to day unless the level triggers or the call is declared broken in print.

An instrument, a level, and the number of closes.

The break condition is written as an instrument, a level, a direction and the number of consecutive closes required, and it is checked against the close every session. A named level stays where it was set. When it triggers, the next issue opens with BROKEN, retires the level with the reason, and changes sides. When a level is retired without triggering, the issue says so and says why.

Scored at the close by a fixed rule, printed the next morning.

Two things are graded, separately, from the session’s closing prices on the cash S&P 500, the VIX and the sector ETFs.

The regime read. A bullish or recovery call needs the S&P up at least 0.3% with the VIX flat or lower. A distribution or bearish call needs the S&P down at least 0.3% with the VIX up at least 1%. A warning or accumulation call needs a quiet tape: the S&P inside ±0.4% and the VIX inside ±3%. Both conditions met is Confirmed, one is Mixed, neither is Broken. A week call is scored on the cumulative move since the regime was first set, with the bands widened by the square root of the number of sessions.

The rotation call. Two legs. The pair: the favored sector’s move minus the avoided sector’s move, a win at +0.30 points or better, a loss at −0.30 or worse. The top favored sector against the S&P, same thresholds. A win with no loss is a Hit, a loss with no win a Miss, anything else Partial. A week call scores both legs on the cumulative move since the sides were first set. When the closing data is missing the session is Unscored, not Partial.

The numbers behind every grade are printed in the next issue’s scorecard, in one line, whichever way it went. The record on the front page is that log, over the last 20 graded sessions and since the first graded issue.

The miss is the first thing in the issue.

The next morning’s Analyst Take opens on the miss, in plain words, with the numbers from the grade. If the break level triggered, the issue says BROKEN and changes sides. If the level did not trigger but the tape went against the call, the call is marked evolved or broken, and the reasoning is rewritten from what changed.

The brief publishes what the desk thinks. It never describes what the fund trades.

Victory Road Capital Management is a systematic manager; its models size and execute. The brief is the macro read behind them, produced each morning. It carries a level and is graded at the close. No issue names a fund position, a size, or a trade, and the published record is the record of these research calls, not the performance of any fund. The brief is macro research for informational purposes and is not investment advice tailored to any individual.

Victory Road Macro is published by Victory Road Corporation. The research desk is Victory Road Capital Management LLC, described at vrcmllc.com. Billing, invoices, W-9s and team seats: accounts@victory-road.ai.